Like the four quarterbacks with higher ADPs (Aaron Rodgers, Drew Brees, Peyton Manning, Tony Romo), Brady has 4,200-yard, 30-touchdown-or-better upside. Unlike the four quarterbacks with higher ADPs, Brady invites concerns about durability, motivation and supporting cast. Of the quarterbacks behind him, only Matt Schaub seems a legitimate challenge to Brady's current ADP. Brady's QB5 ADP and mid-fourth-round draft cost feels right. Still, the very reasonable ADP carries significant risk. The 4,800-yard, 50-TD season of 2007 is a distant memory. Wes Welker may not be himself until well into the regular season. Although there are lots of possibilities, there isn't a clear third receiving option on the depth chart. The Patriots chose not to improve their running game, which could put more pressure on a passing offense that may be fighting rust and inexperience.
Brady finished with 28 TDs and almost 4,400 yards in 2009, but ranked just eighth over all in a banner year for quarterback play. There's lots of room for Brady to fall short of his ADP. And that's only half the argument. When you consider the long list of strong quarterback-by-committee options to be had four to seven rounds later in your draft, Brady's potential reward isn't worth the risk.
Jackson is a special running back. Fighting through back problems and stuck playing for an offense with a weak offensive line and a lack of skill position talent alongside him, Jackson still managed a 4.2 yard-per-carry average over the past three seasons. He has made the most of his few red zone opportunities and contributes significantly as a receiving option out of the backfield. He's reportedly healthier after off-season back surgery and faces a relatively easy schedule in the first few weeks of the season. Based on his last three years, a season of 1,800 total yards, 50 catches and 8-10 touchdowns is possible for Jackson, making his RB6 ADP in a PPR league legitimate. But the supporting cast and back surgery issues still loom. Despite his effort and production in the past three seasons, he finished 8th, 15th and 15th in PPR scoring in those years. Drafting him ahead of an elite WR and waiting to draft a player with similar upside after the turn in the second round or later assumes that Jackson will play to his ceiling.
Chargers Coach Norv Turner predicted that Mathews would be given nearly 300 touches and praised him as a complete back shortly after the draft. With Darren Sproles likely to see nearly all of the passing down duty and a significant number of change-of-pace carries, 300 touches seem the height of Mathews's expected workload despite Turner's coachspeak. But that number really isn't all that far-fetched. LaDainian Tomlinson was on pace for 250 carries despite a brutal yards-per-carry average last season, and parlayed plenty of goal line work into double-digit touchdowns. If Mathews starts well, 300 touches, 1,400 total yards and double-digit touchdowns are within reason, as is his RB12 ADP. But with Vincent Jackson's suspension looming, with the need for Mathews to prove himself capable late in games and on passing downs and with continued question marks about San Diego's run blocking, the borderline RB1 expectation is much closer to Mathews's ceiling than his high RB3 floor.
Speaking of doing things it couldn't late in games last year, the offense's performance in the 2-minute period struggled just like the last time it was in a must-score situation — the overtime NFC wild-card playoff game at Arizona.
Though the 2-minute drill didn't end with the disastrous turnover like the playoff game did, Rodgers' first crack at a game-winning situation in practice wasn't a success.
Starting at his own 40-yard line and with one timeout, Rodgers threw short to tight end Jermichael Finley for an 8-yard gain and then hit James Jones in stride on a slant that he juggled but turned into a 15-yard gain. After Williams broke up the deep pass to Jennings, Finley committed a false start and then dropped a catchable ball on the next play. That put Rodgers in third-and-15 from the defense's 42. He threw a short dump off to running back Brandon Jackson for 7 yards and then called timeout with 18 seconds left and facing fourth-and-8 on the 35. Trying to get one more first down and then get out of bounds, Rodgers threw behind Finley to end the drive.
Flynn, who has struggled at times early in camp, looked better in leading the backups all the way down to the defense's 8-yard line with 2 seconds left. But on the final play, Flynn rolled to his right and threw a pass toward the goal line that was broken up by linebacker A.J. Hawk. Flynn was 5-for-8 passing for 42 yards on the drive. There was also a 10-yard interference penalty on the defense.
Press-Gazette reporter Pete Dougherty talks about Green Bay Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers after the third day of training camp.
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